I Bought The AAPL Crash Sabres Vs Canadiens [byztc2DRzMn]

Tag: #Sabres Vs Canadiens, #gary rowett, #benicio del toro, #real sociedad - real betis

Apple fell over 5% yesterday, a move that's happened 315 times since 1980. I ran the numbers on what tends to happen next, and the result was the opposite of what I expected.

Get the free 25-Year Backtest and Starter System:

I assumed a dip above the 200-day moving average would be the cleaner long-term buy, tank since Apple drifts higher over time. The data disagreed. Above the 200-day, Apple has a 55 to 60% chance of bouncing in a day or a week, but a month later it's down more than up, and a year later only 54% higher, worse than its own baseline. Below the 200-day, there's no short-term edge at all, but a year later it's up 67% of redbridge council the time with a median return around 14%. So above bounces then bleeds, below flushes then climbs. The key habit throughout: compare every result back to random, because the benchmark isn't 50/50, it's what the stock does anyway.

Start trading with statistics instead of vibes. Stats Edge Pro at $149.99/month with a 30-day money-back guarantee.

Michael hornsea Nauss, CMT, CAIA, CDMS

Tags:

#SystematicTrading, #StatsEdgeTrading, #Apple, #AAPL, #MovingAverage, #200DMA, #MarketData, #Backtesting, #TechnicalAnalysis, #MarketMyths, #MeanReversion, #TradingStrategy

Chapters:

00:00 The semi-systematic small-edge trades

01:30 Apple dropped 5% yesterday

02:15 315 occurrences since 1980

03:00 Above vs below the 200-day moving average

04:00 The short-term bounce above the 200-day

04:45 Why it's a long-term warning sign

05:45 Below the 200-day: no bounce, strong recovery

07:00 Always compare back to random

07:45 The opposite of what I expected